The Ghana Meteorological Agency (GMet) has warned that a developing, very strong El Niño event could bring hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells and increased dust levels to Ghana through the first half of 2027.
According to GMet, the phenomenon is likely to worsen dry‑season conditions from late November 2026 to March 2027, although sudden heavy rainfall and localised flooding could still occur in parts of southern Ghana.
El Niño is a natural warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that influences weather patterns, including rainfall and temperatures across West Africa. GMet’s observations, together with data from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), indicate that the event is intensifying and is expected to peak between now and January 2027 before gradually weakening during the first half of next year.
Previous El Niño episodes, notably those of 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2015/16, as well as the moderate event of 2023/24, demonstrate Ghana’s vulnerability to changes in rainfall patterns and their effects on agriculture, water resources, hydroelectric power generation and public health.
GMet forecasts below‑normal rainfall across most parts of the country, although some areas could experience above‑normal rainfall, including inland parts of Greater Accra and Central, south‑western Volta and Eastern, parts of Bono and Savannah, and north‑western Upper West. Warmer‑than‑average temperatures are also expected across most of Ghana, with cooler‑than‑average conditions anticipated in the south‑west and some parts of Volta between Ho and Kete Krachi.
The agency projects that the drier and dustier conditions expected during the dry season could increase the risk of bushfires, water shortages and stress on crops and livestock. It has also warned that hot, dry and dusty conditions could raise the seasonal risk of meningitis, particularly in northern Ghana, and that heat stress is expected to be most severe between February and April 2027, especially in the northern parts of the country.
GMet advises farmers to consult weather updates and agricultural advisories before planting, to consider early‑maturing and drought‑tolerant crop varieties, and to avoid bush burning. Residents in northern Ghana are urged to minimise dust exposure and seek medical attention if they experience fever, severe headache or a stiff neck. The general public should drink enough water during hot periods, avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest hours and check on vulnerable people.
Despite the forecast of generally below‑normal rainfall, communities along the Volta River and residents of flood‑prone, low‑lying urban areas are cautioned to remain vigilant. Short, intense downpours and localised flooding remain possible, and residents are urged to follow safety advisories from the National Disaster Management Organisation (NADMO) and the Volta River Authority (VRA).
GMet will continue to monitor the El Niño event daily, issue updated weather outlooks and regular ten‑day agricultural bulletins, and collaborate with stakeholders in disaster management, energy, agriculture, water resources, health, local government, transport and other sectors to support timely, location‑specific preparedness and response measures.
