Fitch Solutions has revised Ghana’s 2026 current account surplus forecast upward to 7.8% of GDP, up from an earlier estimate of 5.2%. The change follows a stronger‑than‑expected trade performance in the first half of the year.
In the first six months of 2026, Ghana posted a merchandise trade surplus of US$4.3 billion, far exceeding the US$700 million average for the same period between 2016 and 2025. The surge was largely attributed to robust gold exports and a rise in crude oil shipments, which together bolstered the country’s external position.
“As such, we have revised up our 2026 current account surplus forecast to 7.8% of GDP, from 5.2% previously,” the research arm of the global ratings agency said. The firm noted that the trade surplus surpassed its expectations, prompting the upward revision.
Fitch projects that the stronger external position will continue to support Ghana’s current account throughout 2026, with export earnings playing a key role. However, the agency expects a moderation in 2027, forecasting a narrower but still sizeable surplus.
The outlook underscores the importance of commodity exports—particularly gold, which remains a major source of foreign‑exchange earnings—to Ghana’s external balance. The improved first‑half trade balance also provides a larger external buffer, though its sustainability will hinge on commodity performance and global price movements.
For now, Fitch’s revised 7.8% of GDP forecast marks a notable improvement on its previous outlook and reflects the stronger‑than‑anticipated performance of Ghana’s external sector in the first half of 2026.
