S&P Global has warned that Ghana’s dual strategy of accumulating foreign reserves and gold carries a high fiscal cost that could erode the country’s recent public‑finance gains. The US‑based rating agency said the Ghana Accelerated National Reserves Accumulation Program (GANRAP) will force the government to shoulder significant local‑currency expenses, estimating a range of 0.8% to 2.6% of annual GDP.
The report noted that the Bank of Ghana’s balance sheet has deteriorated sharply, with an operating loss of $1.25 billion in 2025 and negative equity rising to 6.7% of GDP. While the government has launched a phased capital restoration programme to recapitalise the central bank through 2032, S&P warned that this will likely require additional government debt issuance.
“The government is reforming its regulatory and tax regimes for the gold sector. For example, it is transitioning to a dynamic sliding‑scale royalty model, to reduce fiscal costs. However, we anticipate that external shocks, such as the rise in international fuel prices stemming from the Middle East war, will partially offset the expected fiscal benefits of these changes,” the agency added.
Inflation has fallen sharply, dropping to 5% in August 2026 from a peak of 54.1% in December 2022, but recent months have seen prices trend upward. The Ghanaian economy remains relatively resilient to the Middle East war’s impact, though rising input costs—particularly fuel and transport—are beginning to affect the economy.
Ghana will need to balance its reserve‑accumulation ambitions with the fiscal realities highlighted by S&P, as the country navigates a complex economic landscape marked by global price shocks and domestic policy shifts.
