China’s National Bureau of Statistics released figures last week showing that the ratio of dependent elderly people to the working‑age population rose to 23% in 2025, surpassing the 22% ratio for children aged 14 and under. The numbers, closely watched for their implications on the world’s second‑largest economy, indicate that more than 223 million people in China are now 65 or older, while about 213 million are children.
These figures mark a milestone as the country grapples with an ageing population that could strain pensions, healthcare and long‑term care systems. Analysts note that the shift reflects a long‑term demographic trend rather than a short‑term anomaly.
China has prepared for a growing proportion of elderly people in recent years, urging younger generations to marry and encouraging couples to have more children. The one‑child policy, in place from 1980 to 2015, is estimated by the government to have prevented about 400 million births, a figure that has been contested by some scholars.
Despite easing restrictions on family size, birth rates have hit historic lows, driven by changing gender roles, rising living costs and higher education levels. Beijing has also incorporated support for older people into its five‑year economic blueprint, with more than 53 million elderly receiving senior citizen allowances and subsidies by the end of 2025.
Experts warn that the demographic shift could limit economic growth and consumer spending power, while also creating opportunities in the silver economy that caters to older consumers. The dependency ratio is widely used to measure ageing populations, but some scholars argue it overlooks the agency and improved health of older adults.
China’s ageing population, driven by rapid urbanisation and the legacy of the one‑child policy, poses both challenges and opportunities for the nation’s future.
