For most of 2025 Ghana’s economy appeared to be stabilising: inflation eased, the cedi strengthened and reserves grew. By September 2026 the picture had changed. The real bilateral cedi had depreciated 9.5 % against the dollar on a year‑to‑date basis, and the trade‑weighted cedi also weakened. Meanwhile, international reserves dropped from 5.7 months of import cover at the start of the year to 4.2 months by August, a loss of $3.09 billion.
These movements raise questions about Ghana’s new external‑sector architecture. After the 2022 crisis, the government launched the Domestic Gold Purchase Programme (DGPP) – often called the Bawumia Doctrine – to buy domestic gold in cedis, export it or convert it to reserves, and use the resulting foreign exchange to support the cedi. Until mid‑2026 the Bank of Ghana (BoG) financed the programme, helping build reserves but also incurring losses of about GH¢22 billion (1.5 % of GDP) in 2025.
From July 2026 the architecture changed: the newly formed GoldBod took over domestic gold purchases and the BoG exited the quasi‑fiscal financing role. GoldBod now relies on commercial banks and private off‑takers for funding, a move that separates monetary policy from gold‑purchasing activity but introduces a new financing vulnerability.
GoldBod’s first full month under the new model saw it generate US$1.315 billion in foreign exchange, with US$668 million sold to commercial banks and US$647 million earmarked for reserve accumulation. While these figures suggest potential, one month of performance does not prove the system’s resilience when market conditions tighten.
The new model makes GoldBod a key transmission mechanism: domestic gold is bought, exported, dollars are earned, and those dollars feed commercial banks and the BoG’s reserves, ultimately supporting the cedi. If financing dries up or export flows falter, the impact could ripple beyond GoldBod, affecting the wider foreign‑exchange market.
In short, Ghana’s shift to a GoldBod‑led gold‑to‑FX model is a significant redesign of its external‑sector architecture. Its success will depend on consistent, scalable financing and the ability to withstand tougher market conditions. The cedi’s depreciation and reserve volatility underscore the urgency of testing this new system’s resilience.
