Databank Research has projected that the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) Composite Index will close 2026 at 16,000 points, an 81% gain from the start of the year. The forecast follows a robust first‑half run, when the index climbed 67.89% year‑to‑date to 14,724.26 points and reached an all‑time high of 15,908.77 points in March.
According to Databank’s Ghana Market 1H’26 Review & 2H’26 Outlook, the rally has been underpinned by improving macroeconomic conditions, resilient corporate earnings and a renewed appetite for equities. Ghana’s economy expanded 6.4% in Q1 2026, surpassing the government’s 4.8% target, and the firm expects growth to stay strong through the rest of the year.
Lower fixed‑income yields have also driven capital rotation into stocks. The 91‑day Treasury bill yield closed the first half at 5.73%, while 182‑ and 364‑day bills ended at 7.69% and 12.82%, respectively. This shift has encouraged investors to seek higher returns in equities.
Banking stocks are seen as key drivers for the second half. Databank notes that banks’ net income grew about 4% from H1 2025 to H1 2026, with non‑performing loan ratios falling to 16.1% from 23.1% and capital adequacy improving to 20.4%. Dividend resumption is also expected to sustain investor interest.
MTN Ghana remains a positive play, with investments in network modernisation and mobile‑money expansion projected to support earnings growth and dividend payouts. The company’s defensive earnings profile and strong cash generation are seen as attractive to investors.
Corporate developments have added confidence to the market. Kasapreko PLC’s IPO raised GH¢1.72 billion and was oversubscribed by 146%, broadening investor participation. Total traded volume in the first half reached 801.97 million shares, with market turnover at GH¢3.88 billion.
Looking ahead, Databank expects selective opportunities in consumer, agriculture and oil marketing sectors, as well as on the Ghana Alternative Exchange. However, the firm cautions that the strong first‑half rally may trigger profit‑taking later in the year, even as earnings momentum and macro conditions remain supportive.
With the GSE Composite Index already among its strongest performances in recent years, market watchers will now focus on whether corporate earnings and economic fundamentals can sustain the rally and propel the index toward the 16,000‑point target.
