Fitch Solutions has warned that Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire’s export sectors could face heightened risks as the October‑December cocoa crop development period aligns closely with the anticipated El Niño peak. Lower rainfall and higher temperatures during key pod‑development stages may reduce yields, weighing on export earnings, government revenues and rural incomes.
Strong El Niño conditions could also disrupt crop cycles, lift food inflation, strain hydropower output and increase social unrest risks. From a food‑security perspective, the firm noted that rice imports account for a substantial share of consumption in several markets, including Senegal (69%), Côte d’Ivoire (49%) and Ghana (47%). These markets are therefore exposed to an El Niño‑driven tightening in global rice supplies.
Fitch’s report highlighted that Sub‑Saharan Africa faces numerous risks. In East Africa, El Niño is typically associated with stronger October‑December short rains, potentially leading to flooding, crop damage, disease outbreaks and transport disruptions. The firm’s Environmental Sustainability and Governance (ESG) Country Risk data shows high shares of the population exposed to flooding. Many East African economies also remain highly exposed to global wheat prices due to high import dependency, meaning any sustained increase in global grain prices could exacerbate inflationary pressures even if domestic harvests benefit from stronger rainfall.
Commodity‑exporting economies would face additional risk through weaker prices, eroding export earnings, fiscal revenues and foreign‑exchange inflows. “Copper and gold exporters are especially vulnerable to more hawkish US monetary policy. Regarding crude, while we forecast prices to come in lower as the US‑Iran conflict reaches a preliminary agreement, there is a risk that prices are weaker than we forecast, particularly if markets continue to react bearishly to positive developments and the Fed hikes rates anyway,” the report added.
With cocoa a key export commodity for both Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, any significant yield loss could ripple through the economies. Policymakers and industry stakeholders will need to monitor weather forecasts closely and consider mitigation strategies to safeguard farmers and national revenues.
