Ghana’s cocoa industry is battling a double whammy of falling international prices and a looming drop in production. Prices, which peaked near US$10,000 per metric tonne in early 2025, have since slumped to between US$5,420 and US$5,447, according to recent market data.
Growth in the sector slowed to 5.2% in the second quarter of 2026, down from 14.2% a year earlier, as reported by the Ghana Statistical Service. The Ghana Meteorological Agency has warned that a strong El Niño event could further disrupt agriculture, water supplies and hydroelectric power during the 2026/2027 crop season.
COCOBOD forecasts at least a 16% decline in cocoa output for the upcoming season, citing adverse weather, swollen‑shoot disease, ageing farms and illegal mining as key threats. These pressures make the push for local processing ever more urgent.
Ghana has set a target of processing at least half of its cocoa domestically, backed by a grinding capacity of over 500,000 metric tonnes. In 2025, non‑traditional cocoa exports reached a record US$5 billion, with processed and semi‑processed products accounting for US$3.9 billion.
Yet less than 10% of Ghana’s raw cashew is processed locally, highlighting the broader challenge of building a competitive agro‑processing industry. The real test lies in turning agricultural output into finished products, stronger export earnings and domestic jobs, rather than remaining exposed to volatile raw commodity prices.
As Ghana navigates these challenges, the focus on value addition could reshape the cocoa sector’s future, offering a buffer against market swings and a pathway to sustainable growth.
