S&P Global has cautioned that Ghana’s aggressive push to build foreign‑exchange and gold reserves under the Accelerated National Reserve Accumulation Policy (GANRAP) may impose a significant fiscal burden on the government. The agency estimates the cost could range between 0.8% and 2.6% of annual GDP, potentially offsetting recent gains in public finances.
GANRAP relies heavily on gold to strengthen Ghana’s external buffers and increase import cover. While the strategy aims to bolster the country’s reserves, S&P warns that the local‑currency costs could become a challenge for fiscal management, especially if other pressures on government finances intensify.
The rating agency also highlighted the deteriorating financial position of the Bank of Ghana, which posted a $1.25 billion operating loss in 2025 and saw its negative equity rise to 6.7% of GDP. A phased recapitalisation programme is underway until 2032, but S&P notes that restoring the central bank’s capital may require additional government debt issuance.
Although Ghana has made reforms to reduce the fiscal burden of its gold sector—including regulatory and tax changes and a planned dynamic sliding‑scale royalty system—external shocks such as higher international fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict could undermine expected gains. Rising fuel and transport costs are already beginning to weigh on businesses and households, despite a sharp drop in inflation from 54.1% in December 2022 to 5% in August 2026.
Despite these challenges, the agency acknowledges the Ghanaian economy’s relative resilience to Middle East‑related shocks. Nonetheless, it warns that higher fuel and transportation costs could erode some of the fiscal benefits derived from the reforms.
Ghana’s public finances will need to navigate these competing pressures as it continues its reserve accumulation strategy, with the potential for increased debt issuance to support the Bank of Ghana’s recapitalisation.
