Databank Research has updated its 2026 fiscal outlook, lowering the country’s projected deficit from 2.5% (GH¢40 billion) to 2.2% (GH¢34 billion) of gross domestic product. The change reflects a GH¢35.1 billion underspend in the first half of the year and a total expenditure cap of GH¢302 billion, which helped offset a GH¢1.3 billion revenue shortfall.
The research arm of Databank Group highlighted that the disciplined fiscal stance marks a structural break from historical overshooting, signalling that the sovereign’s “Commitment Authorisation” framework is effectively curbing institutional waste. It also noted that a primary surplus of 1.5% of GDP is expected by the end of 2026, supported by GH¢6.9 billion in interest savings and a stable inflation backdrop.
Additional factors underpinning the outlook include the transition to the non‑financing IMF Policy Coordination Instrument and a 65% reduction in gold‑reserve implementation costs under the Ministry of Finance‑GoldBod memorandum of understanding. The government has already paid GH¢7.1 billion to power producers, reinforcing energy sector stability. The Jubilee drilling campaign has lifted production to 95,000 barrels of oil per day amid favourable global prices, further supporting the fiscal position.
Databank Research concluded that strong treasury bill demand and oil export proceeds position Ghana to exceed its GHS30 billion sinking fund target by year‑end, barring major global shocks.
