Fitch Ratings has warned that the contributions from African banking groups’ foreign subsidiaries to net income and total assets are set to rise in the medium term. The UK‑based agency noted that these subsidiaries have grown steadily over the past decade and that the pace has quickened since the pandemic, driven by acquisitions and, for Nigerian banks, the devaluation of the naira.
In its latest assessment, Fitch highlighted Access Bank Plc as having achieved the fastest cross‑border growth in recent years. The report also points to Kenya as a new magnet for entrants from Nigeria and South Africa, while European banks’ retreat from Africa has opened opportunities for African groups, especially in francophone West Africa.
Fitch added that new paid‑in capital requirements across the continent are likely to fuel further mergers and acquisitions. It noted that Moroccan banking groups are an outlier, with foreign subsidiary contributions falling in recent years due to a lack of acquisitions and strong domestic growth.
According to Fitch, the push for cross‑border expansion is partly aimed at supporting customers’ international business needs and capitalising on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, robust economic growth and expanding financial inclusion. The strategy also seeks to diversify away from domestic risks, as banks in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya have faced macroeconomic challenges over the past decade.
The rating agency evaluated 12 of the 14 African banking groups in the report. These groups operate subsidiaries in at least five African countries and had consolidated total assets exceeding US$15 billion by the end of 2025.
