Finance Minister Dr Cassiel Ato Forson delivered the 2027 Budget Statement and Economic Policy to Parliament on Thursday, 12 November, outlining the government’s economic projections, proposed fiscal reforms, revenue measures and spending priorities for the coming year.
The budget is expected to show how government intends to sustain the gains from economic stabilisation while creating fiscal space for investment, infrastructure development and job creation under its New Economy agenda.
Ghana’s economic performance in 2026 provides the backdrop for the proposed fiscal framework. Real GDP growth reached 6 per cent in the second quarter, above the 4.8 per cent full‑year target. Inflation stood at 5.5 per cent in October, below the Bank of Ghana’s medium‑term target band of 6 to 10 per cent. The primary balance recorded a surplus of 0.9 per cent of GDP in the second quarter, against a full‑year target of 1.5 per cent. Gross international reserves stood at 4.2 months of import cover in August, exceeding the three‑month minimum target.
Against this backdrop, government is proposing a set of economic targets for 2027 that point to a continued focus on stability, alongside a stronger push for investment and growth. Overall real GDP growth is projected at a minimum of 5 per cent, with non‑oil growth also targeted at 5 per cent. The end‑period inflation target is set at 8 per cent, within a range of 6 to 10 per cent.
On the fiscal front, government is targeting a primary surplus of 0.5 per cent of GDP, down from the 1.5 per cent target for 2026. The lower target suggests a moderation in the pace of fiscal consolidation and could provide more room for development spending. Government also intends to build gross international reserves to at least six months of import cover, double the three‑month minimum target for 2026. Public debt is projected at 43 per cent of GDP.
Revenue mobilisation is expected to remain central to government’s financing strategy. Total revenue and grants are projected at GH¢314 billion, equivalent to 17.3 per cent of GDP. Domestic revenue is programmed at GH¢310.8 billion, with gross non‑oil tax revenue expected to contribute GH¢264.3 billion. The proposed revenue strategy is expected to focus on improving tax compliance, strengthening customs administration, broadening the tax base and reducing revenue leakages.
Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Nyarko Ampem has indicated that government does not intend to introduce new taxes in the 2027 Budget. Instead, it plans to create fiscal space through expenditure rationalisation and savings from reduced public spending.
On the expenditure side, compensation of employees is programmed at GH¢104.1 billion, while capital expenditure is projected at GH¢89.7 billion. Grants to other government units are estimated at GH¢76.3 billion, with interest payments programmed at GH¢61.3 billion. The spending framework will be closely watched, particularly the balance between recurrent obligations and capital investment. Government will need to demonstrate how it intends to protect development spending while managing the wage bill and debt‑servicing costs.
At the centre of government’s growth agenda is the proposed US$10 billion New Economy investment programme, covering the period from 2027 to 2030. The programme is intended to move the economy beyond stabilisation towards higher production, industrialisation, value addition and job creation. The 2027 Budget is expected to provide details of the financing and implementation arrangements, including how government intends to mobilise domestic resources and attract private‑sector capital.
The programme identifies priority areas such as commercial agriculture and agribusiness, energy, critical minerals and value addition, textiles and garments, tourism and the creative arts, and pharmaceutical manufacturing. Government is also expected to outline its proposed funding arrangements for flagship initiatives, including the Big Push infrastructure programme, the 24‑Hour Economy and the Gold Refining Initiative.
The Big Push has a programmed allocation of GH¢27.5 billion from combined domestic resources and the Annual Budget Funding Amount. The Gold Refining Initiative, meanwhile, targets local refining of at least one metric tonne of gold every week. The key issue will be whether government can secure the financing, prepare viable projects and attract private investment to deliver the programme’s intended outcomes.
Beyond the investment agenda, the budget is expected to outline reforms aimed at strengthening public financial management and improving oversight of public resources. These include plans to make the Fiscal Council fully operational from 2027 and restore uncapped statutory transfers to the National Health Insurance Scheme, GETFund, the Road Maintenance Trust Fund and the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation. The proposed reforms are intended to strengthen fiscal oversight and improve the management of public resources.
The International Monetary Fund has also emphasised the need for stronger project appraisal, competitive procurement and tighter expenditure controls to ensure value for money under the New Economy programme. Therefore, the 2027 Budget will be assessed not only by its economic targets and proposed allocations, but also by government’s ability to implement its plans.
What Ghanaians will be looking out for is whether the revenue measures, investment priorities and fiscal reforms can support stronger businesses, higher productivity, sustainable job creation and improved living standards without compromising the country’s fiscal stability.
